Wish You Could Turn Back
the Clock and Invest in the S&P in 1988?
We Just Found a Similar Opportunity!
January 24, 2008
It was late November of 1988 and the S&P 500 was trading
around 275. Investors were still reeling from the sharp correction
in stocks on "Black Monday" about a year earlier.
Perhaps that lingering fear and panic was the reason why U.S.
stocks were trading at such depressed valuation levels.
You see, back in November of 1988
was the last time the S&P 500 traded with a trailing
price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 12. To be exact, the P/E
ratio for the S&P dipped as low as 11.5 during the course of
that month.
At the time, many investors were
worried. On the geopolitical front, the Soviet Union remained a
very real threat, and the Iron Curtain still stretched across much
of Europe. Closer to home, inflation had begun to creep higher in
the late 1980s, and there were signs of overheating in the real
estate market. Newly appointed Fed chairman Alan Greenspan had
also hiked rates ahead of the 1987 crash -- Fed policy was just as
big of a concern back then as it is today.
But, as is so often the case, those
with the courage to accept these risks and buy stocks were amply
rewarded in the coming years. During the nearly 20-year period
from the S&P's low in November 1988 until the end of 2007, the
index returned nearly +500%. In real terms, a $50,000 investment
in 1988 would now be worth about $300,000.
When you look back, it's easy to
see that 1988 represented an historic buying opportunity for U.S.
stocks. And although you certainly can't buy the S&P at 12 or
13 times earnings today, there are still ways to buy stocks at
less than 13 times earnings. You just need to look overseas.
You see, investors currently have
another historic buying opportunity -- an opportunity very similar
to what we saw in the S&P back in 1988. But this great
opportunity does not lie in U.S. stocks. Instead, it exists in a
little-publicized foreign market with enormous long-term
potential.
Not only are stocks in this foreign
nation cheap, but its economy is also on solid footing, with gross
domestic product (GDP) surging at an annualized rate of +5.0% in
2006, +4.8% in 2007, and a projected +4.6% in 2008. In fact, this
economy has been growing at a consistent clip of at least +4.0% in
each of the past three years, and that growth shows no sign of
slowing in the coming years.
This economy's health has
historically been tied to exports rather than domestic demand and
expenditures. But the consumer is awakening -- consumer
expenditures have climbed a healthy +5.75% in recent quarters, and
household income is expanding at a roughly +4.75% clip.
In the early part of this decade, a
bubble in credit card and other personal debts hit local banks
hard as consumers became overstretched and started defaulting on
loans. Now, however, these institutions have resolved the bulk of
their bad debt issues and have become far more conservative about
lending -- the financial system is healthier and better
capitalized than it has been in years. Mortgage lending is growing
again at a sustainable pace, and the housing and credit markets
are healthy.
Introducing: South Korea
Of course, I'm not talking about
the U.S. here. Rather, this historic buying opportunity is to be
found in South Korea. The country's main stock market index, the
KOSPI, trades at around 12.7 times trailing earnings and just 11.7
times forward earnings as we go to press, making it about as cheap
as the S&P 500 in 1988.
Meanwhile, the economy and consumer spending are growing at a much
faster pace than in the U.S. Even better, Korea is located in the
center of the world's most dynamic growth markets -- in the very
heart of Asia.
| This small peninsular country has become a global leader in
a variety of electronics and industrial markets. South
Korean cars, once considered low quality and unreliable, are
making headway in the U.S. and other developed markets. If
you don't believe me, just check out the number of Hyundais
you see in the sububs of any major American city.
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And South Korea has long been known as a world
class player in electronics -- Korea-based Samsung has become a
household name worldwide over the past few years.
South Korea also remains an export powerhouse -- as you can see in my
chart, exports have been surging.
This export growth has continued despite an economic slowdown in
the U.S., which has historically been a major destination for
Korean exports. That's because Korea's export base has grown more
diversified in recent years -- fast-growing Asian nations, as well
as Europe, are important destinations for Korean goods.
South Korea's Compelling Valuation
So, why is this market so cheap in
the midst of all the favorable economic news? There's no single
right answer to this question.
South Korea is still considered an
emerging market by many investors, though it's certainly
outgrowing that moniker. The country's economy has grown rapidly
since the 1960s and GDP per capita -- a basic measure of
overall wealth -- stands at just under $25,000. While that's far
less than the $43,500 per capita GDP enjoyed in the U.S., it's not
far below the GDP per capita of Spain, and it is well ahead of
Portugal.
South Korea certainly isn't the obscure economic backwater it once
was. With a stable government and legal system, investors are
beginning to re-evaluate the country's risk from an investing
standpoint -- over time, market valuation levels are likely to
rise to reflect the lower perceived risk.
Another factor that's been holding
South Korean stocks back is the perceived geopolitical risk
associated with North Korea. That communist State is an utter
economic disaster -- GDP per capita is less than 8% of the
country's southern neighbor. And to top it all off, North Korea
has been attempting to develop nuclear weapons and missile
technology that could threaten South Korea or nearby Japan.
However, South Korea has flourished for years despite the risks
associated with North Korea. And the chance of an all-out war
between South and North Korea is remote given the huge U.S. troop
presence in South Korea and China's military dominance to the
north.

Investors are already beginning to catch on to the positive
economic story and reduced risks of investing in South Korea. That
fact is reflected in the stellar performance of the nation's stock
market in recent years. As my chart above shows, the KOSPI
Composite Index has skyrocketed nearly +200% higher over the past
five years -- beating the S&P 500 by a nearly 4-to-1 margin.
And with reasonable valuation levels and strong growth potential,
I believe South Korean stocks have years of additional
outperformance ahead of them.
Capture Above-Average Dividends
in This Booming Market
In the end, a rising stock
market is usually a reflection of a country's rising wealth -- and
rising corporate profits. Of course, the question always arises of
what to do with this influx of cash. More and more, Korean firms
are deciding to pay out their profits to investors in the form of
rich, above-average dividends.
Nowhere is this trend more evident than in the funds that invest
in this Asian Tiger. For example, I recently uncovered a fund
whose sole focus is South Korea. Its holdings run the gamut from
steel maker POSCO to electronics firm Samsung to shipbuilders
Hyundai Heavy and Daewoo. Their common theme -- all of these
stocks trade only in South Korea, and all of them are growing at
phenomenal rates. As a result, they're delivering strong returns
for investors. The returns posted by these companies have been so
exceptional, in fact, that this fund has already gained more than +204%
over the past five years.
Even better yet, this fund has showered investors with rising
distributions -- $7.12 per share in 2006 and $15.94
per share in 2007. Try finding payments like that from companies
in the United States!
If you'd like to learn the name of
this fund -- plus receive a steady stream of foreign stocks, funds
and other investing ideas with abnormally high dividend yields
each and every month -- then I'd like to extend you a personal invitation to
try my premium newsletter . . . High-Yield International.
Visit
this link to learn more.
Thanks for joining me on my search for today's highest-yielding securities!


-- Nick Lanyi
Editor, High-Yield International
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