Why Emerging Markets Are
A Gold Mine for Income Investors
February 13, 2008
Anyone that has even a passive interest in investing has probably
heard great things about the world's emerging markets. Given their
hefty triple-digit returns in recent years and the likelihood of
more gains on the horizon, it's not surprising that this corner of
the market has captured so much attention lately. But despite all
the high-flying stocks that everyone is eager to buy, there is a different story that
doesn't get a lot of press -- the companies paying fat dividends and
distributions.
Looking Abroad
In years
past, most of the world's stock market value was locked up in the
United States. However, trillions of dollars of wealth have been
created overseas in the past decade.
We may have hundreds of great companies here in the U.S. to choose
from -- but there are literally thousands elsewhere around the
world. Take banks, for example. In terms of assets, seven of the top
ten banks (always strong dividend payers) in the world are foreign-based companies.
This means most U.S. investors looking to invest in a high-yielding
bank stock are limiting
themselves to only 30% of what is available. And the story is
similar across most other industries, from retailers to steel makers
to electronics manufacturers -- many of the top payers are located outside the U.S.
Clearly, there is something to be said for casting a wider net, and
those that have done so have been well rewarded through total
returns. Over the past 15
years, the U.S. has not been the top-performing stock market in
any given calendar year. In 2007,
for example, the +5.5% return of the S&P 500 was well below
average. The broader emerging markets returned 42%, and individual
countries fared even better. China which received the most attention
saw increases of 69%. Countries such as India and Peru saw even
better returns and led the emerging markets with returns near 80%.
Over the past five years, the S&P
500 has delivered average gains of about
+12.5% per year. While that
return is respectable, it lags most foreign benchmarks -- stocks
have jumped +17% per year in Pacific Asia, +21% per year in Europe,
and +47% per year in Latin America over the same time frame.
While the story might change from country to country, the overall
economic outlook for the developing world is bright. Naturally, this
heady growth should translate into tremendous gains and rising
dividends for investors in
the years ahead.
Riding the
International Wave
The U.S. economy is the most advanced and industrialized nation in
the world. As a result, the country cannot
continue to grow at the same pace it has over the past century. In
fact, annual growth of just +3-4% is now considered robust for
a large, developed economy.
But similar to America at the turn of the century, many
emerging markets are still very early in their development cycle and
are just now beginning to hit their stride. And just as U.S. stocks
have created hundreds of billions in wealth over the past few
decades, dominant companies in the world's developing markets could
do the same in the coming years, rewarding investors with capital
gains on top of those hefty yields.
This growth will be
fueled by a number of factors. Asian economies, for
example, are becoming important bases for global manufacturing
operations. In China for example, major multinational companies are
taking advantage of low labor costs by moving manufacturing jobs
there.
Meanwhile,
infrastructure throughout Asia continues to grow, and that rapid
expansion has led to high demand for basic materials like copper,
steel, and energy (oil and natural gas). Prices for these basic
commodities are rising to levels unseen in two decades, and as a
result, commodity-rich economies across Latin America are
benefiting.
At
the same time, many emerging markets are enjoying a booming export
business. South Korea is a world-class manufacturer of
ships and automobiles, as well as semiconductors, wireless
equipment, and other electronics. Driven by strong demand from
nearby China as well as consumers in the West, the
exportation of these products has surged, pushing the country's GDP
above $1 trillion.
Finally, many emerging markets are benefiting from regulatory
reforms, cross-border trade, and loose monetary policy. And of
course, as the disposable incomes of these densely populated regions
continue to rise, we expect these nations to see sustained growth in
consumer spending power in the years ahead, boosting earnings for
retailers, financial services providers, and a host of other
industry groups.
That being said,
stocks in emerging markets have delivered
stellar gains over the past few decades. According to a study by
Vanguard, emerging market stocks produced average annualized gains
of nearly +15% between 1973 and 2003, easily
outpacing the +11.5% return of those in the U.S.
To put those numbers into perspective, consider this: a $100,000
investment earning +11.5% for 30 years would grow to about $2.6
million -- a very respectable sum. However, if you were able to
invest that same $100,000 at +15% per year, then you'd
end up with
over $6.6 million -- an improvement of $4 million.
Going forward, this
sort of emerging market growth should translate into superior
corporate profitability and impressive gains for investors. But best
of all, this growth will mean many foreign companies will be
generating substantial amounts of cash, the major catalyst for
rising dividend payments.
In a recent issue, we located one fund that invests solely in the best
companies in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Turkey -- all
considered emerging markets. The performance of this region of the
world has been so great, it has allowed the
fund to pay investors distributions
of $5.52 per share in
2006 and $10.26 per share in 2007 -- for a yield of 21%! And over the last five years, the fund
has had a market return of more than +37% annualized. Results like this shows it
literally pays to invest abroad.
This is the exact reason why I started
High-Yield
International -- the only
newsletter dedicated to income opportunities available abroad. There
is a crying need for U.S. investors to know that they don't have to
settle for the puny yields offered stateside. By simply expanding
your investment horizons, you can be earnings yields of 10%, 14%,
even 21% or more!
Visit
this link to learn more about High-Yield International.


-- Nick Lanyi
Editor, High-Yield International
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