When it comes to commodities, South Africa is in a class by
itself.
South Africa's economy -- the largest in the fast-developing
continent -- is driven by
its valuable mining and energy sectors, which account for about
40% of its stock market capitalization. South Africa is the
world's largest producer of gold and platinum and one of the top
producers of coal and diamonds. It's also rich in copper, iron
ore and uranium, among other metals experiencing rising demand.
Specifically, gold and coal prices have soared worldwide over
the last few years (although gold has pulled back lately), boosting
South Africa's trade surplus.
The country also has a solid manufacturing sector, specializing
in metal-heavy products such as railway cars. South Africa also
is a net exporter of agricultural products. Over the past
decade, the nation has benefited from the dismantling of trade
barriers and from increased foreign investment, which was
curtailed greatly by boycotts during the last years of the
apartheid era.
Commodities Boom Leads to +310% Gains
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Thanks to its sharply rising GDP, the South African stock market
has been one of the world's most profitable of late, which has
help attract additional capital to fuel economic growth. As the chart shows, the FTSE/JSE Africa Top 40 Index is up
nearly +310% over the last five years -- trouncing
the S&P's performance by a 6-to-1 margin.
And thanks
to rising commodity prices, South African stocks have posted
gains of +11.8% so far in |
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2008, one of the best performances of any market in
the world.
Of course, the South African picture isn't entirely rosy. The country has suffered from high unemployment and
widespread poverty. It's also facing a significant electricity shortage, as for years the
government discouraged private investment in new power
plants. In addition, because of high
inflation, South African officials are keeping interest rates
fairly high at 11.5%. Although these lofty interest rates
are great news for income investors, the policy is designed to
rein in the economy.
But even though the country's economic growth is expected to slow,
it is still projected grow +4.5% in 2008 -- about three times faster
than the U.S. economy. And considering South Africa's
challenges, the nation's nearly +5% growth rate speaks volumes about
the power and longevity of this boom.
Furthermore, I think gold -- driven by worldwide inflation -- is
only pausing now and soon will resume its upward trend. If that
happens, South African corporate earnings will keep the
country's bull market moving forward.
Economic Powerhouse in an
Emerging Region
Longer term, South Africa is the financial and industrial center
of sub-Saharan Africa; while this part of the world remains
trapped in poverty, it's no stretch to imagine the continent
eventually following the path of other emerging markets in the
post-Cold War era. Western investment in Africa is picking up
steam, as are efforts to combat HIV/AIDS and other pervasive
health problems. As the continent's economic growth picks up,
South Africa will surely be a major beneficiary.
In short, South Africa is in the catbird seat of one of the
fastest-growing segments of the world economy: mining
commodities, particularly gold. In addition, it's a large
developing market with established industrial and financial
sectors, surrounded by smaller states likely to experience
above-average economic growth in the coming years. In
fact, the opportunities in South Africa today remind me of
conditions in China not long ago -- on it's path to become
the world's best investment opportunity in recent years.
Rebounding Currency
Note that South Africa's currency -- the rand -- has pulled back -12% versus the U.S. dollar this year, making it one of
the only currencies the dollar has gained against. The main
reason for this fall has been higher-than-expected inflation.
However, with interest rates so high, it's unlikely the rand
will continue to fall significantly. After all, big
institutional investors are pouring ever-increasing sums of
money into South Africa in an effort to profit from "carry
trade" investments. This strategy --
whereby foreign investors borrow money at low interest rates elsewhere and deposit
them in South African bonds at high interest rates -- should be a stabilizing factor for the rand
in the coming months. Thus, I expect the rand to appreciate over the next 12 to 18 months.
(In
fact, it has already rallied about +3% in the past two weeks).
Capture 9.3% Dividend Yields and +314% Capital
Gains
South Africa's booming commodity sector is fueling growth
throughout the country. And the nation's high interest
rate environment is supporting outstanding yields in some
safe and stable stocks.
Just this month, I profiled one of my favorite South African stocks in the
pages of my premium newsletter . . .
High-Yield
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-- Nick Lanyi
Editor, High-Yield International